Osservatorio Strategico Mediterraneo Allargato

➢ France is likely to adopt stricter measures on Islamic symbols and education, as a countermeasure to Muslim Brotherhood (MB) – linked networks.

➢ French authorities are concerned about a subversive threat to secularism, but no evidence of violent aims was found.

➢ Sources of dissent state that the governmental report may be politically motivated, risking fostering sentiments of alienation and discrimination.

➢ Belgium and Germany are likely to follow France’s stricter measures through closer monitoring of Islamist groups.

➢ The UK is less likely to act due to previous political failures.

Latest Development

In late May 2025, French President Emmanuel Macron proposed banning the hijab for girls under 15 in public spaces. Critics argue against this move, seeing it as part of a far-right narrative. Still, the President’s decision is only one of several countermeasures that France will adopt in response to the “shocking report.” ^[1]

The French Defence Council and Minister Bruno Retailleau recently examined a confidential report written by a former prefect and an ambassador. The report addresses a threat to the French national cohesion posed by the spread of political Islamism through the Muslim Brotherhood. ^[2]

Due to its confidential nature, authorities disclosed only parts of the report via Le Figaro and Agence France-Presse to highlight the Elysée’s concern over Islamism spreading from the bottom up. However, the media and academic debate is divided between those who support the report’s objectivity and those who claim it reinforces Islamophobic sentiments. ^[3]

Background

The Muslim Brotherhood (MB), a political Islamist group founded in Egypt in 1928 by Hassan al-Banna, aims to establish Sharia law through peaceful means. ^[4] Many Arab states, including Egypt, have banned the group. The French report cites MB’s main harangue:

“We, the Muslim Brotherhood, are like a vast hall into which any Muslim may enter through any door to find what he seeks. Should he seek Sufism, he will find it. Should he seek an understanding of Islamic jurisprudence, he will find it. Should he seek sports and scouting, it is here. Should he seek combat and armed struggle, he will find them. (…) You have come to us with your concern for the ‘nation.’ Thus, I welcome you.”

to emphasise that MB’s main goal is to establish an Islamic state and impose Sharia law. The potential rise of Political Islamism jeopardises French secularism and gender equality. ^[5]

The debate over the report centres on the presumed link between MB and Muslims of France. Nadia Henni-Moulaï’s book explains that Muslims of France share core values with France and demonstrate peace, respect, and solidarity. ^[6] Muslims of France reject any association with the MB and deny intentions to shift French society into Sharia. The report also confirms that it found no recent evidence of such intention but leaves room for suspicion. ^[7]

A Pew Research Center graph shows that in 2016, after the refugee crisis, France had the highest percentage of Muslims in Europe. This trend has increased and is projected to grow under various migration scenarios. ^[8]

In 2024, the report’s authors conducted field trips and concluded that 139 places of worship affiliated with Muslims of France likely serve as MB offshoots. This accounts for 7% of the 2’800 Muslim places of worship in France. They also identified 280 associations – active in education, charity, healthcare, and finance – as linked to the Federation of Muslims of France, although only 53 are officially declared. Education is a major concern. The report identified 815 Quranic schools serving 66’050 minors, where students learn Islamic principles and Arabic as a first language. Islamic practices, such as Ramadan fasting, have become deeply embedded and widely spread, especially in the Rhône-Alpes region, the North, the Grand Est, Île-de-France, and the Bouches-du-Rhône. ^[9]

The increasing density of networks and institutions, such as the Council of European Muslims, raises suspicion about possible MB links that could impact French social and governmental norms.

Intelligence Assessment and Strategic Implications

Two schools of thought currently shape expert analysis. One view supports the official report’s warning about the “subversive nature of the project.” The report argues that France will unlikely face overt separatism but a presumed plan by the MB to infiltrate institutions. ^[10] Kastner and Wohlforth define subversion as “covert efforts by one state to influence another’s domestic politics against its will, often to change policy or even the regime.” ^[11] They outline subversion in three escalating levels: (1) overt propaganda, (2) covert effort, (3) violent means. ^[12] From this perspective, France is very likely to act now and prevent escalation to the third level.

The opposing view, represented by Amel Boubekeur, argues that France uses the MB threat as a political pretext to influence upcoming elections. Boubekeur claims that the communities mentioned in the report result from civic grievances and social exclusion, not from MB affiliation. She warns that this strategy could alienate Muslim citizens and damage social cohesion in the society, while also fuelling Islamophobic sentiments to undermine a potential “Muslim bloc vote.” ^[13]

The report also identifies other European states where MB has “a strong national foothold,” indicating potential for the threat to expand.

• It describes Belgium as the “crossroads of the MB movement in Europe.” Although Belgium has not designated MB as a terrorist organisation, it has maintained structured monitoring since March 2022. ^[14] If France advances its protective measures, Belgium is likely to follow.
• Germany also hosts a significant Muslim population. In January 2025, the far-right AfD party proposed a bill to ban MB-affiliated groups, particularly the German Muslim Community Association, which it identifies as the MB’s German branch.^[15] AfD and CDU both push for stronger measures against the MB’s influence in religion and civil society. Future French actions are likely to prompt Germany to act further.
• The report calls the United Kingdom an “advanced outpost of the Middle Eastern movement.” Yet, unlike Belgium and Germany, the UK is less likely to take drastic steps. In 2014, Prime Minister David Cameron failed to classify MB as a terrorist organisation. In 2024, the UK added the Muslim Association of Britain (MAB) to a list of extremist groups, but MAB’s practices remain unchanged.^[16]

Conclusion and Recommendations

Given the salience of the report, monitoring the situation to follow further developments remains important. Based on the principles of Public International Law, only the French State possesses sovereignty over its security matters; therefore, analysts must carefully examine any speculation or different interpretation. In conclusion, the renewed scrutiny of the MB reflects growing concern over political Islamism’s perceived influence within national institutions. While the report outlines the risks of potential MB-affiliated sources, versions of dissent also show that this scrutiny could unintentionally damage Muslim citizens’ integration in the country. The most challenging step that France and other European states, like Belgium, Germany, and the UK, must take is to balance national security matters with the protection of civil liberties and inclusion.

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