Osservatorio Strategico Mediterraneo Allargato

➢ On June 12, 2025, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) and Mossad operatives conducted strikes against the nuclear facilities and key leadership personalities in the Islamic Republic of Iran.

➢ The strikes are very likely to serve not only to disrupt Iranian nuclear capabilities but also as a reaffirmation of Israel’s red lines.

➢ Iran officially withdrew from the nuclear talks.

➢ The United States “will almost certainly feel compelled to help defend Israel against counter-attacks by Iran.”

➢ There will likely be retaliation from the Houthis and the Iran-backed Shiite militias in Iraq; Hezbollah has publicly stated it will not intervene militarily at this stage.

Latest Development

On June 12, 2025, the Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) and Mossad operatives conducted strikes against the nuclear facilities and key leadership personalities in the Islamic Republic of Iran.^[1] These initial strikes resulted in the deaths of several senior Iranian officials. According to CBS, Israel has taken advantage of a perceived Iranian vulnerability after “having lost regional cloud in Syria, Lebanon and Gaza.” ^[2]

Despite Tehran’s announcement on June 11 that it had finalised plans for an “immediate counterstrike” against Israel, Iran has not yet proportionally responded. ^[3] Early on Friday, 13, Iranian officials reported that Iran will respond harshly and decisively. When asked whether the attack would be imminent, the answer was that retaliation measures are being discussed at the highest levels.^[4] The reasons behind this delay remain unclear. The first response consisted of only 100 drones, all shut down by the IDF and Jordan air forces.^[5]

Further Details

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed the beginning of a sustained military operation, labelled Operation Rising Lion, stating that it would continue “for as many days as it takes to remove the [Iranian] threat.” According to Netanyahu, the campaign is aimed at Iran’s nuclear enrichment and weaponisation programs, ballistic missile capabilities, and the scientists involved in these projects.

In the first phase of the operation, drones were launched from within Iranian territory, preceded by a kinetic action carried out by Mossad operatives on the ground, which effectively neutralised Iran’s air defense systems, targeting Surface-to-Surface Missile (SSM) launchers at the Espajabad base. The second phase involved precision strikes targeting high-ranking Iranian figures, supported by F-351 Adir, F-15A and D Baz, F-16D Barak, and F-161 Sufa aircraft, along with aerial refueling and electronic warfare planes. Israeli airstrikes reportedly eliminated several top officials, including Major General Mohammad Bagheri, Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Major Hossein Salami, Commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Gholam Ali Rashid, Commander of the Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters, Fereydoon Abbasi, former head of the Atomic Energy Organisation of Iran, Mohammad Mehdi Tehranchi, physicist and President of the Islamic Azad University, and Amir Ali Hajizadeh, the commander of Iran’s Aerospace Force and architect of its ballistic missile program. The third phase focused on degrading Iran’s missile program infrastructure and weakening its broader defensive capabilities, particularly across western Iran. Israeli airstrikes reportedly struck multiple sites, including the Natanz Enrichment Complex in Esfahan Province—explicitly confirmed by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu—as well as key sites in Tehran Province. Among the areas targeted were Nobonyad Street, the Lavizan district, Jahan Koudak Tower, and the neighborhoods of Farahzad, Amir Abad, Andarzgou, Langari Street, Patrice Lumumba Street, and the Asatid-e Sarv Complex. The operation was carried out as part of a broader air campaign aimed at disrupting command and control structures while systematically degrading military infrastructure and eliminating elements of political, military and scientific leadership involved in Iranian strategic programs.^[6][1] [2] [3] [4] 

Additionally, unverified reports indicated explosions were hear in the provinces of Qom, Markazi, Kermanshah, and Hamadan. While these reports suggest the possibility of broader targeting across Iran, it remains unclear whether specific facilities in those regions were struck.[5]

Intelligence Assessment & Strategic Implications

• The Israeli strikes constitute the operationalisation of the Begin Doctrine, which maintains that no regional actor should be allowed to acquire nuclear weapons capability. This shift also aligns with repeated Israeli warnings that it would act unilaterally if the international community failed to constrain Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
• The Israeli government is likely to have used official condemnation against Iran as a diplomatic shield. On June 12, “the U.N. nuclear watchdog’s 35-nation Board of Governors declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations for the first time in almost 20 years.” ^[7]
• The strikes are very likely to serve not only to disrupt Iranian nuclear capabilities but also as a reaffirmation of Israel’s red lines, aiming to reinforce the credibility of its deterrent posture.
• Israeli Western allies and partners will almost certainly assume a strategic non-obstruction approach, avoiding overt support as well as any serious effort to deter or constrain Israeli action. The reported pre-notification to Chancellor Merz on Friday further supports the assessment. ^[8]
• Multiple Iranian sources have confirmed that they will remotely continue to engage in negotiations with the US, although Iran officially withdrew from the nuclear talks.
• The United States “will almost certainly feel compelled to help defend Israel against counter-attacks by Iran.”^[9] It is believed that the US has not played any role in the strikes against Iran, but the Israeli security establishment trusts that the US will be at their side.
• The IDF will almost certainly continue to hit military and nuclear sites for “many days”, as declared by Netanyahu. Netanyahu has emphasised the urgency of acting now, stressing that the threats cannot be left for future generations. In his words, failing to act now would mean there may be no next generation to defend. Nevertheless, Israel is unlikely to destroy the Iranian nuclear problem completely, lacking the bunker buster bombs to destroy fortified sites. The most realistic objective is to “push it so back it would not be worth continuing.” ^[10]
• There will likely be retaliation from the Houthis and the Iran-backed Shiite militias in Iraq, as they are the only Iranian proxies in the region with the operational capabilities to carry out attacks. At the same time, Hezbollah has publicly stated it will not intervene militarily at this stage. This assessment has led the U.S. Embassy in Iraq to remain on high alert.
• Furthermore, the goal will very unlikely be regime change in Iran. “Indeed, the security establishment is talking only about thwarting the danger posed by Iran’s nuclear program, without bragging about completely destroying every aspect of the program.”^[11] However, these developments will likely challenge regime stability, as shown by Crown Prince of Iran, Reza Pahlavi, in his appeal to the Iranian population, the military and the police to strike and overthrow the Islamist regime.^[12] At the same time, elements of the Kurdish opposition have issued statements proclaiming the beginning of the end for the Islamic Republic, urging renewed mobilisation against the regime.

Conclusion

Operation Rising Lion marks a turning point in Israel’s strategy against Iran, with targeted attacks on nuclear infrastructure, key figures in the regime and military sites. Israel aims to significantly delay Iran’s nuclear programme, reaffirming its deterrence without seeking regime change. Tehran’s response, still limited, suggests a regional escalation, while Western allies maintain a position of active non-interference.

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